Катя (inostranka) wrote,
Катя
inostranka

Итоги года: Финансы

Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future
- Yogi Berra
В прошлом году некий Byron Wien, senior managing director of Blackstone, has released his yearly list of 10 surprises to be ready for, а я написала о 8и из них. Товарищ оказался мега-крут:  из выбранных мной восьми пунктов, он был прав в... нуле. Причем ошибался он солидно и в каждом, и в размере и в направлении.

Пишу это для того, чтобы показать, что финансистам явно не за прогнозы деньги платят - в прогнозах они, скорее, хуже среднего курса (предсказание "все останется как есть" было вы верно в больше половины пунктов). Жаль, что я тогда свои предсказания не высказала явно, но хоть спорила с пессимистами ;)

2. Fed raises rates by 2% starting in Q2
==> Fed funds rate stayed at 0.25% throughout the year
3. 10 year Treasury yields go above 5.5%
==> Treasuries are still yielding 2.65%
4. S&P 500 rallies to 1300 in the first half (1200 now), then declines to 1000, ending around 1100.
==> S&P went up to 1200 in April, down to 1000 in July and back to a post-crash peak of 1250 now
5. Dollar rises to over 100 yen (97 now) and euro drops to below $1.30 (1.34 now)
==> Dollar fell to 82 yen and euro stayed at $1.33
6. Japan Nikkei 225 rises above 12,000 (11,000 now)
==> Nikkei fell to 10,228 (I still don't get why he was predicting a fall for S&P, but a rise for the Nikkei)
7. With Obama's endorsement, Congress passes bills providing loands and subsidies for new nuclear plants, first since 1979.
==> Obama did try (as part of a climate bill?), but, at least as far as I know, nothing happened
8. Democrats lose only 20 seats in November.
==> In the House alone, Democrats lost 63 seats
10. In Iran, Khamenei pushes out Ahmadinejad in favor of a more public relations adept leader. Pakistan becomes the new hotspot in the region.
==> Huh!
Tags: finance
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